Skip to content

Market study · 2026-Q4 edition

Panama City's residential market, in data

Own sample: October 21 and 22, 2026 · External sources cut-off: September 30, 2026

This study's figures come from our own sample: every active apartment listing for sale and for rent in the five areas where we work, cleaned and deduplicated by Vaca Group (Lic. PN 5904, ACOBIR member). They are asking prices, not closings, and every figure carries its sample size. What others report is kept apart, with source and date.

Unique apartments for sale · 5 areas
4,670
Listings that repeat the same apartment
76%
Median sale $/m² · range across areas
$1,911–$3,664
Estimated net yield · range across areas
3.6–4.7%
Sale listings with a price cut
10–14%

What happened between July and September

This quarter's trends

  1. 1

    Real supply is far smaller than it looks

    Of the active listings with price and size, about three in four repeat an apartment another agent already posted: in Costa del Este one apartment appeared 37 times. It is the consequence of a market without a mandatory MLS and with little exclusivity. For sellers it means competing against fewer units than they see; for buyers, that the real menu is narrow and worth negotiating unit by unit. This edition counts units, not listings.

  2. 2

    Santa María pulls away on price; San Francisco remains the entry door

    Resale in Santa María is offered well above the other four areas, with a quarter of its inventory in new builds and developer price lists that confirm the level. At the other end, San Francisco combines the lowest median per m², the largest inventory and the most accessible median ticket: it is where the local buyer and the yield investor come in. Costa del Este, Punta Pacífica and Avenida Balboa sit grouped in the middle, with p25–p75 ranges that overlap: within each, the building matters more than the area.

  3. 3

    Gross promises 7–8%; net delivers 3.6–4.7%

    Measured on the same sample, median rent per m² against median resale price gives gross yields between 6.7% and 8.3% across the five areas. After one month of vacancy, management, a one-month leasing commission per contract, the HOA fee the listings themselves publish (around 1.8 dollars per m² per month), property tax and insurance, net lands between 3.6% and 4.7%. Under conservative assumptions (two months of vacancy, 12% management and a new contract every year) it falls to 2.7–3.6%; an owner who self-manages, with one month of vacancy, rises to 4.3–5.5%. The gap is explained mostly by the tax: it weighs more where the median price exceeds 500,000 dollars. San Francisco and Avenida Balboa lead on net; Santa María, with the highest price, closes the list, with Punta Pacífica just above it.

  4. 4

    Decree 17 leaves a resale bracket without a visa buyer

    Since September 16 the Qualified Investor visa requires 500,000 dollars in resale and keeps 300,000 for new builds bought from the developer. Resale between 300,000 and 499,999 dollars loses that buyer, and the bracket is large: four in ten units in Avenida Balboa, three in ten in Costa del Este and one in four in Punta Pacífica and San Francisco. In Santa María it barely exists because prices are already above the line. Its size is small: about 234 MICI real-estate certificates a year nationwide against 1,172 units in that bracket in the five areas; a marginal effect for the market and one buyer fewer for whoever sells there. Three weeks in there is no abnormal cluster of listings just above 500,000; we will track it monthly. What is visible is that most new builds in the five areas are offered from 300,000, ready to absorb that demand.

  5. 5

    Money stays expensive and mortgage credit cools

    The economy is growing strongly, 6.4% in the second quarter and 5.5% in the half year, but construction barely advanced 1.3% and new mortgages fell 24% between January and August. The Federal Reserve raised its rate on September 16, and in a dollarized system without a central bank that pushes back the rate cut the Superintendency expected for year-end. The locally financed buyer loses capacity; the cash buyer, who in Vaca Group's daily practice dominates these areas, does not. In our judgment that is why asking prices are not giving way while financed sales cool; the own series starting here will put it to the test.

Own sample · deduplicated active listings

The five areas, card by card

Each card comes from the active listings on Encuentra24, Compre o Alquile and the ACOBIR MLS captured as of October 21 and 22, 2026, cleaned and deduplicated: when the same apartment is posted by several agents, it counts once. Median and p25–p75 range of asking price per m². Any figure with fewer than 15 units is flagged as indicative.

Costa del Este

See the area →

Sale · resale

$2,530median $/m²

p25–p75: $2,171–$3,200 · 787 units

median price $548,582 · median size 210 m²

Rent

$15.05median $/m²/month

p25–p75: $12.86–$18.14 · 351 units

median price $2,500/mo · median size 166 m²

Gross yield
7.14%
Estimated net
4.00%
Unique inventory
934sale · 351rent
Listings with a price cut (on Encuentra24)
14.1%median -4%
New builds on offer
15.7%$3,430/m²

By bedrooms (resale)

Unit typeSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGross
1 bed$4,07850$23.86287.0%
2 bed$3,296147$18.33876.7%
3 bed$2,379463$14.071927.1%
4+ bed$2,546120$13.21246.2%

Furnished rentals: 72.1% · premium vs. unfurnished +4.3%.

Punta Pacífica

See the area →

Sale · resale

$2,476median $/m²

p25–p75: $2,042–$3,554 · 979 units

median price $595,000 · median size 235 m²

Rent

$14.69median $/m²/month

p25–p75: $11.81–$19.86 · 342 units

median price $3,100/mo · median size 219 m²

Gross yield
7.12%
Estimated net
3.94%
Unique inventory
1,054sale · 342rent
Listings with a price cut (on Encuentra24)
12.3%median -5%
New builds on offer
7.1%$3,448/m²

By bedrooms (resale)

Unit typeSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGross
1 bed$2,502116$16.34527.8%
2 bed$2,531241$15.72777.5%
3 bed$2,484441$13.811566.7%
4+ bed$2,393175$11.82405.9%

Furnished rentals: 65.8% · premium vs. unfurnished +3%.

Santa María

See the area →

Sale · resale

$3,664median $/m²

p25–p75: $3,025–$4,096 · 421 units

median price $900,000 · median size 284 m²

Rent

$20.53median $/m²/month

p25–p75: $15.44–$25.69 · 89 units

median price $3,600/mo · median size 215 m²

Gross yield
6.72%
Estimated net
3.63%
Unique inventory
559sale · 89rent
Listings with a price cut (on Encuentra24)
9.6%median -4%
New builds on offer
24.7%$3,806/m²

By bedrooms (resale)

Unit typeSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGross
1 bed$4,330†7$27.33†37.6%†
2 bed$4,00552$24.43207.3%
3 bed$3,532253$16.20445.5%
4+ bed$3,732105$23.81†137.7%†

Furnished rentals: 71.9% · premium vs. unfurnished +16.4%.

San Francisco

See the area →

Sale · resale

$1,911median $/m²

p25–p75: $1,650–$2,283 · 1,171 units

median price $260,208 · median size 135 m²

Rent

$13.16median $/m²/month

p25–p75: $11.31–$15.62 · 472 units

median price $1,500/mo · median size 113 m²

Gross yield
8.26%
Estimated net
4.74%
Unique inventory
1,281sale · 472rent
Listings with a price cut (on Encuentra24)
12.9%median -5%
New builds on offer
8.6%$2,450/m²

By bedrooms (resale)

Unit typeSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGross
1 bed$2,260108$14.60527.8%
2 bed$1,950436$13.431928.3%
3 bed$1,847520$12.501738.1%
4+ bed$1,755101$11.43237.8%

Furnished rentals: 72.5% · premium vs. unfurnished +6.4%.

Avenida Balboa

See the area →

Sale · resale

$2,402median $/m²

p25–p75: $2,019–$3,017 · 734 units

median price $340,000 · median size 133 m²

Rent

$15.06median $/m²/month

p25–p75: $12.59–$18.13 · 477 units

median price $1,950/mo · median size 129 m²

Gross yield
7.52%
Estimated net
4.29%
Unique inventory
842sale · 477rent
Listings with a price cut (on Encuentra24)
12.2%median -4%
New builds on offer
12.8%$3,118/m²

By bedrooms (resale)

Unit typeSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGross
1 bed$2,610198$15.471227.1%
2 bed$2,500308$15.392127.4%
3 bed$2,100185$12.87757.3%
4+ bed$2,03339$12.93177.6%

Furnished rentals: 71.5% · premium vs. unfurnished +8.5%.

Context areas

Neighboring districts measured with the same method, to place the five areas. Same sample, same filters.

AreaSale $/m²nRent $/m²/monGrossEst. netPrice cut
Punta Paitilla$1,955601$13.672038.39%4.76%9.6%
Coco del Mar$2,416444$18.901769.39%5.69%11.8%
Marbella$1,969248$13.76848.39%4.86%14.4%
Obarrio$1,987394$12.981097.84%4.47%11.4%
Bella Vista$2,200791$15.383608.39%4.95%10.3%
El Cangrejo$1,833374$12.501218.18%4.65%14.3%

† = indicative (fewer than 15 units)

Resale: median asking price by area (USD/m², unique units)

Vaca Group's own sample of active listings on Encuentra24, Compre o Alquile and the ACOBIR MLS, October 21 and 22, 2026. Context areas are measured with the same method.

Rent: median asking price by area (USD/m²/month)

Vaca Group's own sample of active listings on Encuentra24, Compre o Alquile and the ACOBIR MLS, October 21 and 22, 2026. Context areas are measured with the same method.

From gross to net

What is actually left after costs

Gross yield compares the median rent per m² with the median resale price per m² in the same area. Net deducts, in this order, one month of vacancy per year, the management fee on collected rent, a one-month leasing commission per contract, the HOA fee, property tax and basic insurance. The assumptions are printed so every reader can swap in their own.

AreaGrossVacancyManagementLeasing feeHOAProperty taxInsuranceNet
Costa del EsteOn a reference apartment of 210 m² and $531,300 (area medians). measured fee: $1.80/m²7.14%mix-adjusted 6.88%−0.59%−0.65%−0.30%−0.85%−0.68%−0.06%4.00%
Punta PacíficaOn a reference apartment of 235 m² and $581,860 (area medians). measured fee: $1.81/m²7.12%mix-adjusted 6.87%−0.59%−0.65%−0.30%−0.88%−0.71%−0.05%3.94%
Santa MaríaOn a reference apartment of 284 m² and $1,040,576 (area medians). measured fee: $2.35/m²6.72%mix-adjusted 6.31%−0.56%−0.62%−0.28%−0.77%−0.84%−0.03%3.63%
San FranciscoOn a reference apartment of 135 m² and $257,985 (area medians). measured fee: $1.72/m²8.26%mix-adjusted 8.11%−0.69%−0.76%−0.34%−1.08%−0.54%−0.12%4.74%
Avenida BalboaOn a reference apartment of 133 m² and $319,466 (area medians). measured fee: $1.85/m²7.52%mix-adjusted 7.32%−0.63%−0.69%−0.31%−0.92%−0.59%−0.09%4.29%

The headline gross compares medians of samples with different unit-type mixes; weighted by the mix of the sale supply it lands between 6.31% and 8.11%, 0.2 to 0.4 points lower. For a specific unit use its unit type's gross, in the bedroom table of each area card.

Net under alternative assumptions

AreaConservativeBaseFavorableSelf-managed
Costa del Este3.05%4.00%4.50%4.65%
Punta Pacífica2.99%3.94%4.44%4.59%
Santa María2.73%3.63%4.10%4.25%
San Francisco3.64%4.74%5.32%5.50%
Avenida Balboa3.29%4.29%4.82%4.98%

Conservative: 2 months of vacancy, 12% management and a new contract every year. Base: 1 month, 10% and 2-year contracts. Favorable: half a month, 8% and 3-year contracts. Self-managed: 1 month of vacancy, no management fee and 2-year contracts, for the owner who manages the unit personally and takes on the time, collection and default risk. The leasing commission is one month of rent per contract. HOA, tax and insurance unchanged. Before income tax and without financing.

Net yield assumptions

  • • Vacancy: 1 month per year (8.3% of rent).
  • • Management: 10% of collected rent (Vaca Group's fee).
  • • Leasing commission: 1 month of rent per contract, with 2-year contracts (4.2% of rent per year).
  • • Reference price: the median $/m² times the area's median size; it differs from the median listing price on the area card because the size mix is not the same.
  • • HOA: median of the fee published in sale listings in the same area, per m² per month; if an area has fewer than 15 listings with a fee, $2.50/m²/month is used.
  • • Insurance: 300 USD per year.
  • • Before income tax, which depends on each owner's tax situation.
  • • Law 66/2017, property that is not a primary residence: 0% up to $30,000; 0.6% from $30,001 to $250,000; 0.8% from $250,001 to $500,000; 1.0% above $500,000, applied to the median list price.

Executive Decree 17 of 2026

The investor visa now tells new from resale

Verified against Official Gazette 30613 of September 16, 2026 (pages 23 to 37) and the MICI note of September 28. Visa eligibility is verified case by case with immigration counsel: this study is not legal advice.

Executive Decree 17 of September 8, 2026, published in Official Gazette 30613 and in force since September 16, replaces the 2020 regime for permanent residency as a Qualified Investor. For the first time the minimum depends on the property's condition: US$300,000 if it is new, unoccupied and bought from the developer; US$500,000 if it has already been sold, occupied or leased.

  • Computable value: the lower of the price paid and the documented commercial value, minus outstanding mortgages and liens (art. 5). An inflated price does not help reach the threshold.
  • Financing: only the amount above the minimum can be financed, and no lien may leave the net value below the minimum (art. 5).
  • Purchase agreement from US$300,000, backed by a trust or by paying 100% to the developer under an irrevocable bank guarantee; at most three years supported by agreements alone (art. 7).
  • Holding period: five years, with annual verification before MICI; 90 days to reinvest if the investment ends (art. 12).
  • Transition: deals perfected before September 16 may use the previous regime if the application is filed before March 16, 2027 (art. 19).
  • Other routes: US$500,000 in securities through a licensed brokerage; fixed deposit of US$750,000 at a private bank or US$500,000 at Banco Nacional or Caja de Ahorros (arts. 8 and 9).

Resale on offer by price bracket (unique units)

Costa del Este31%14%55%Punta Pacífica27%14%59%Santa María9%88%San Francisco27%59%14%Avenida Balboa41%39%20%
under $300K$300K to $499K: the bracket that loses the visa buyer$500K and above
AreaResale $300K–499KNew builds from $300KResale listings between $500K and $525K
Costa del Este31%244 units83%n=14730
Punta Pacífica27.5%269 units73.3%n=7527
Santa María8.6%36 units98.6%n=1385
San Francisco27.5%322 units32.7%n=11014
Avenida Balboa41%301 units50.9%n=10823

The stated intent in the preamble is to channel the visa toward primary inventory because resale «creates substantially fewer jobs». In practice a trapped bracket appears: resale between US$300,000 and US$499,999 loses the buyer seeking residency, and that bracket is the core of supply in San Francisco and Avenida Balboa. For new builds from US$300,000 it is a direct edge. Its size is small: MICI issued 268 certificates in a year, 87% real estate, about 234 buyers nationwide, against 1,172 units on offer in that bracket in the five areas: a marginal effect for the market and one buyer fewer for whoever sells there. Three weeks in there is no abnormal cluster of listings just above US$500,000; what is visible is how much inventory sits on the wrong side of the line.

First reaction measured on asking prices three weeks into the decree; not on closings. The transition window for deals perfected before September 16 runs until March 16, 2027.

What changes under Decree 17 →

New construction

Active projects and list prices

Two separate readings. Above, the public price lists of the developers Vaca Group markets, by project (source: Vaca Group CRM). Below, the pre-sale and newly delivered listings detected in the portal sample, by area. Real absorption per project is not published in Panama: it is not estimated.

ProjectAreaDeveloperStatusList $/m² (median)List pricePrice list as of
MaderoCosta del EsteValor DevelopmentPre-sale$3,371$529,706–$1,475,0912026-10-19
TaguaCosta del EsteValor DevelopmentPre-sale$3,608$1,223,200–$2,259,4742026-10-08
CelesteSanta MaríaValor DevelopmentUnder construction$3,582$623,580–$1,350,9002026-10-08
CorotúSanta MaríaValor DevelopmentUnder construction$3,944$559,462–$639,8402026-10-08
GuayacánSanta MaríaValor DevelopmentUnder construction$3,708$1,361,600–$1,361,6002026-10-05
The WoodshousesSanta MaríaValor DevelopmentUnder construction$3,896$1,245,000–$1,400,0002026-10-22
Torre AltairSanta MaríaGIASAUnder construction$3,777$958,898–$1,160,9502026-10-21
ÉbanoSanta María · south phaseValor DevelopmentPre-sale$4,184$617,600–$663,8342026-10-02
AvantiSanta María NorthGrupo Los PueblosPre-sale$5,024$533,264–$937,7142026-07-15
Bosco di Santa Maríafirst towers delivered in 2029Santa María NorthGrupo Los PueblosPre-sale$4,625$628,000–$1,400,6722026-07-15
Casa BoscohousesSanta María NorthGrupo Los PueblosPre-sale$3,280$2,056,768–$2,453,9122026-05-27
Ocean Reef IslandsPrivate Islands · Panama BayGrupo Los PueblosPre-sale$5,764$1,057,143–$1,346,7942026-07-15

New-build listings on portals (own sample)

AreaUnitsMedian $/m²p25–p75% of inventoryPremium over resale
Costa del Este147$3,430$2,789–$4,31915.7%+36%
Punta Pacífica75$3,448$2,504–$4,5217.1%+39%
Santa María138$3,806$3,359–$4,14724.7%+4%
San Francisco110$2,450$1,950–$3,3988.6%+28%
Avenida Balboa108$3,118$2,475–$3,66012.8%+30%

List prices, not closings; developers apply discounts and payment plans in pre-sale. Delivery dates must be confirmed with each developer. The median $/m² is computed over the units available in each developer's current price list; for Ocean Reef Islands and Avanti, over the published typologies.

Ranking

The five areas, ranked

By estimated net yield

  1. 1San Francisco4.74% Gross 8.26%
  2. 2Avenida Balboa4.29% Gross 7.52%
  3. 3Costa del Este4.00% Gross 7.14%
  4. 4Punta Pacífica3.94% Gross 7.12%
  5. 5Santa María3.63% Gross 6.72%

Net yield under the assumptions in the previous section.

By observed price pressure (indirect liquidity indicator)

  1. 1Santa María9.6% Listings with a cut · Unique inventory 559
  2. 2Avenida Balboa12.2% Listings with a cut · Unique inventory 842
  3. 3Punta Pacífica12.3% Listings with a cut · Unique inventory 1,054
  4. 4San Francisco12.9% Listings with a cut · Unique inventory 1,281
  5. 5Costa del Este14.1% Listings with a cut · Unique inventory 934

Ordered by the share of sale listings showing a price cut, measured on Encuentra24, the only portal that publishes that tag (fewer cuts = less seller pressure). Indicative: portals publish neither days on market nor closings.

Three paths, with their assumptions

Scenarios at 6 and 12 months

6 months (to April 2027)

Base

Asking prices stable across the five areas, with visible cuts on 10% to 15% of listings. Resale between 300,000 and 499,999 dollars takes longer to sell and starts to give on price; new builds from 300,000 absorb the visa buyer, a few hundred a year nationwide. Rents stable, with furnished units earning their premium.

Upside

If the Fed stops hiking and MICI speeds up certifications, new builds in Santa María and Costa del Este raise their lists and resale above 500,000 becomes the visa buyer's refuge: medians up in the top bracket, cuts below 10%.

Downside

If mortgage credit keeps falling at double digits and local demand retreats, the 300,000 to 499,999 bracket piles up inventory and cuts exceed 20% of listings in Avenida Balboa and San Francisco; rents hold up better than sales.

Assumptions: Fed rate at 3.75–4.00% or higher through April; new mortgages falling; MICI certificates at the 2025–2026 pace (about 270 a year); new-build deliveries per developer calendars; no changes to Decree 17.

12 months (to October 2027)

Base

Resale medians flat or slightly down in the middle bracket and firm above 500,000; the gap between new builds and resale widens in Santa María and Costa del Este; net yield stable between 3.5% and 5% because rents and prices move together.

Upside

First dollar rate cut and recovery of local credit: the middle bracket regains buyers, cuts normalize and well-located resale rises by a low single digit in asking price.

Downside

Rates high for longer and new-build deliveries concentrated in 2027: excess new supply in Santa María Norte and Costa del Este, developers discounting, middle-bracket resale with double-digit cuts.

Assumptions: Those of the 6-month scenario, plus: the city's new-build inventory keeps falling (−11% year on year in May per Panama Equity) or reverses with 2027 deliveries; Convivienda reports 2026 sales above or below its 5,530-unit projection.

Recommendations by profile and area

What to do in your case

AreaIf you are sellingIf you are renting outIf you are investing from abroad
Costa del EstePrice inside your unit type's p25–p75; between 300,000 and 499,999, expect a long sale.Rent at the median per m²; furnish only for short-term corporate tenants.Store of value with mid-table net; enter via new builds from 300,000 or resale above 500,000.
Punta PacíficaWidest price spread: justify yours with view, floor and building condition.Rent at the median; furnishing earns almost no premium, compete on building and view.Low net, but the largest inventory above 500,000 for the visa; get your own appraisal.
Santa MaríaYou compete with the developer's new builds: sell immediate delivery and a known HOA fee.Highest rent per m² and a double-digit furnished premium: furnish for the executive tenant.Lowest net; the value is in new builds under construction at 3,580–3,950 $/m² list.
San FranciscoLargest inventory and lowest ticket: list at your unit type's median and expect to negotiate.Leading gross; rent at the median for 2- and 3-bed units, where demand is.Best net and cheapest entry; for yield, not for the visa except via new builds.
Avenida BalboaFour in ten units sit in the bracket without a visa buyer: stand out with bay view and high floor.Largest rent sample and a furnished premium near 9%: furnish 1- and 2-bed units.Second-best net; furnished 1- and 2-beds for yield; visa only above 500,000 or in new builds.

What others report

External context, with source and date

Figures published by third parties up to the September 30 cut-off, or the latest available. Never mixed with our own sample: they measure different things with different methods.

GDP, Q2 2026
+6.4%INEC / Contraloría vía Infobae, TVN y MEF
Inflation, YoY · Sep 2026
2.8%INEC vía Infobae
Mortgage portfolio · Aug 2026
$20.0BSBP vía La Estrella de Panamá
New mortgages · Jan–Aug 2026
-24%SBP vía La Estrella de Panamá
Fed funds rate · Sep 16, 2026
3.75–4.00%+25 bp · Federal Reserve
Qualified Investor certificates
268Jul 2025 to Jun 2026 · B/.113.6M · MICI
Primary-market $/m² · Q3 2026
$2,669−2.8% q/q · +4.0% y/y · GPG
PH transfers · Jan–Aug 2026
6,927−3.4 % y/y · Public Registry
PH mortgages · Jan–Aug 2026
3,914−31.8 % y/y · Public Registry

Condominium (PH) transfers registered per month · Panama Public Registry (national)

Condominium (PH) transfers registered per month · Panama Public Registry (national)2,1661,6251,0835420JFMAMJJASOND202420252026
National figure, all provinces and uses: not only Panama City. January–August 2026: 6,927 PH transfers (−3.4 % year on year); PH mortgages −31.8 % year on year over the same period. December 2025 was atypical (2,006). Read from the official charts with an August 2026 cut-off. Source

Average price per m², primary-market apartments in Panama City (GPG / Properstar)

$2,2602023Q32024Q1$2,5982024Q32025Q1$2,5672025Q32026Q1$2,6692026Q3
New builds and luxury, not resale. Quarterly: Q3 2026 −2.8% quarter on quarter and +4.0% year on year. Source

Second opinion: Global Property Guide (October 2026) puts gross yields between 4.9% and 8.5% in these areas by unit type, on Compreoalquile asking prices; it matches the range of our own sample. Source

Costs a foreign buyer should budget

Down payment · local banks
30–40%
Closing costs
1.5–3.5%
Non-subsidized mortgage
6.24%SBP · system average, Apr 2026
HOA fee
$230–670/momeasured fee × median size, by area
Property-tax exemption
$120,000primary home (Law 66/2017)

If the purchase supports a Qualified Investor visa, Executive Decree 17 of 2026, in force since September 16, sets the minimum by the property's condition: US$300,000 if it is new and bought from the developer, and US$500,000 if it is resale, with the investment held five years. The computable value is the lower of price paid and appraisal, minus liens. This is general information: confirm it with an immigration attorney.

What changes under Decree 17 →

Download the full study

The 2026-Q4 study as a PDF, in English and Spanish, with the five area cards, the net yield calculation, the Decree 17 analysis, the scenarios and the recommendations by profile. Plus a one-page executive summary. Free.

  • ●Median and range of price per m² for sale and rent, with sample sizes
  • ●Gross and net yield with the assumptions in plain sight
  • ●Real inventory after deduplication and listings with price cuts
  • ●Decree 17: which bracket loses the visa buyer
  • ●Scenarios at 6 and 12 months and what to do if you sell, rent out or invest

* Name and at least one way to contact you.

Not ready to talk yet? Keep the data coming

Get the new Panama City residential market data every quarter (next edition after 2026-Q4). One email per quarter, nothing else.

How to cite this study

The own-sample data is free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0 license). Suggested citation:

Vaca Group Real Estate, Panama City Residential Market Study, 2026-Q4 — vacagroup.net/en/market

Direct anchors: #zonas (area cards), #neto (gross to net), #decreto-17, #obra-nueva, #ranking, #escenarios, #recomendaciones, #contexto (external sources), #limitaciones.

Download the per-area data (CSV · CC BY 4.0)

Methodology and sources

Layer A, what we measure: as of October 21 and 22, 2026 we captured every active apartment listing for sale and for rent for Costa del Este, Punta Pacífica, Santa María (within Juan Díaz), San Francisco, Avenida Balboa and six neighboring context districts on three portals (Encuentra24 50,712, Compre o Alquile 18,459, ACOBIR's public MLS 423): 69,594 listings, 47,336 with a unique identifier. After the sanity filters (venta 800–8,000 $/m², 30–600 m², ≥$60,000; alquiler 6–40 $/m²/mes, 30–600 m², $500–15,000/mes; duplicados por zona+operación+recámaras+área±1 m²+precio±2 %) 11,148 unique apartments remained: the same property posted by several agents, or on several portals, counts once (3,807 units appeared on more than one portal). Sensitivity check: adding Compre o Alquile and the MLS to the Encuentra24 sample moved no resale median of the five areas by more than 1.1%. We use the median and the p25–p75 range; any figure with fewer than 15 units is flagged as indicative. These are asking prices: real closings are negotiated below them and Panama publishes no aggregate closing database. Layer B, what others report: every external figure carries source, link and date, and is never mixed with our own sample. This document is market research for information purposes; it is not financial or investment advice.

Sources: Muestra propia de Vaca Group sobre avisos activos de Encuentra24, Compre o Alquile y el MLS ACOBIR (capturada el 21 y 22-oct-2026, deduplicada entre corredores y entre portales) · Global Property Guide y Compreoalquile.com (yields y medianas, oct-2026) · Global Property Guide / Properstar (m² mercado primario, 3T 2026) · INEC / Contraloría (PIB 2T 2026, IPC sep-2026) · Superintendencia de Bancos vía La Estrella (ago-2026) · MEF (permisos ene–jun 2026) · MICI (Inversionista Calificado, jul-2025–jun-2026) · Gaceta Oficial 30613 (Decreto Ejecutivo 17 de 2026) · ACOBIR y 4S Real Estate vía La Estrella (jul-2026) · Panama Equity (obra nueva, may–jun 2026) · CRM Vaca Group (precios de lista de 12 proyectos)

What we did not measure, and why

Limitations of this study

  • Asking prices, not closings: Panama publishes no aggregate closing database. The only closing figure found is the median transfer in Costa del Este for the first half (US$357,500, Nexo, July 27, 2026), with no published method. A 60-folio pilot in the Public Registry (Grandbay Tower and Park Loft, October 22) confirmed that the public folio does not show the transfer price: the registered value is the condominium's constitution value and the price appears only in the scanned deed. It does allow counting registered sales by building and year.
  • The own sample was captured on October 21 and 22, 2026, not September 30: a portal does not allow rebuilding a past date's inventory. The September 30 cut-off applies to external sources.
  • Three portals, each with its own limits. Encuentra24 was crawled in full. Compre o Alquile only allows five pages per search (its robots.txt), so searches were split into price bands until each bracket was covered; the few bands that still exceeded the limit are noted in the cleaning report. ACOBIR's public MLS contributes agent-verified listings but few per area (small n), so it carries little weight in the medians. PanamaProp changed its method since May and is therefore not used for changes over time.
  • No quarter-on-quarter change with the same yardstick: the own series starts with this edition and the first valid comparison, with the same filters and deduplication rules, will be 2027-Q1.
  • Days on market cannot be measured: the portal only shows the last update date, which resets on republishing.
  • Price adjustments: the portal's price-cut badge is counted, not a price history. This edition's dataset is kept to measure real changes in 2027-Q1.
  • Deduplication is statistical (area, operation, bedrooms, size ±1 m² and price ±2%): it may merge two identical units from the same developer or split one unit posted with different sizes.
  • New-build and furnished classification relies on listing keywords; a fraction of listings is misclassified in both directions.
  • Santa María is identified from listing text within the Juan Díaz district, and Avenida Balboa from the portal's neighborhood filter: boundaries do not match Law 42 of 2017 exactly.
  • Vacancy, management, leasing commission and insurance in the net yield are stated assumptions, not measurements. Property tax is computed on the list price, which usually exceeds the registered cadastral value.
  • Real absorption per project and per area is not published (ACOBIR and Galería Inmobiliaria reports are paid); it is not estimated.
  • The reaction to Decree 17 is measured on three weeks of asking prices; any effect on closings and timing will take quarters to show.
  • The Public Registry series (condominium transfers, mortgages and new units) are national, across all provinces and uses, and were read from its official charts because no downloadable table is published; they serve as an activity gauge, not as a figure for Panama City or the five areas.
How much does a square meter cost in Panama City's prime areas in 2026?
Median resale asking price, unique active apartments as of October 2026: Costa del Este $2,530/m² (n=787); Punta Pacífica $2,476/m² (n=979); Santa María $3,664/m² (n=421); San Francisco $1,911/m² (n=1171); Avenida Balboa $2,402/m² (n=734). Vaca Group's own sample of listings on Encuentra24, Compre o Alquile and the ACOBIR MLS, deduplicated; asking prices, not closings.
What yield does a rental apartment produce in Panama?
Across the study's five areas, gross yield runs 6.7–8.3% and the estimated net yield 3.6–4.7%, after one month of vacancy, 10% management, the HOA fee measured in listings, property tax and basic insurance. Vaca Group Market Study, 2026-Q4 edition.
What changes under Decree 17 of 2026 for buying with an investor visa?
Since September 16, 2026 the minimum is US$300,000 if the property is new and bought from the developer, and US$500,000 if it is resale (previously sold, occupied or leased). The computable value is the lower of price paid and appraisal, minus liens; the amount above the minimum can be financed. Verified against Official Gazette 30613.
How many sale listings are actually the same apartment?
In the October 2026 sample, about 76% of unique listings with a price and size repeated an apartment already posted by another agent (same area, bedrooms, size and price). That is why this study counts units, not listings.